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Nonresidential Construction Spending Expected to Increase through 2012 with Stronger Growth Projected for 2013

      Commercial and industrial projects poised to lead building sectors

      Contact: Scott Frank
      202-626-7467
      sfrank@aia.org

      http://twitter.com/AIA_Media

      For immediate release:
      Washington, D.C. – August 2, 2012 –
      Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year. A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast. The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.

      “With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”

    Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts

    2012

    2013

         

    Overall nonresidential

    4.4%

    6.2%

         

    Commercial / industrial

    5.7%

    10.2%

    • Industrial

    12.9%

    8.1%

    • Hotels

    9.5%

    18.2%

    • Retail

    6.2%

    9.0%

    • Office buildings

    4.7%

    8.7%

         

    Institutional

    0.7%

    3.0%

    • Healthcare facilities

    4.0%

    7.5%

    • Education

    0.3%

    1.1%

    • Amusement / recreation

    0.1%

    2.3%

    • Public safety

    0.0%

    0.1%

    • Religious

    -5.0%

    3.0%

      Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.”

      About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel
      The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, McGraw Hill Construction, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s economy.com, Reed Business Information, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI. The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months. The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 13 years.

      About The American Institute of Architects
      For over 150 years, members of the American Institute of Architects have worked with each other and their communities to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings and cityscapes. Members adhere to a code of ethics and professional conduct to ensure the highest standards in professional practice. Embracing their responsibility to serve society, AIA members engage civic and government leaders and the public in helping find needed solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit www.aia.org. Twitter: http://twitter.com/AIA_Media

      Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/#!/AIANational

 

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