Pace of construction activity projected to accelerate through 2019

Strength in industrial and institutional sectors offsetting projected easing in commercial construction activity

For immediate release:

Washington, D.C. – January 29, 2018 – Despite labor shortages and rising material costs that continue to impact the construction sector, construction spending for nonresidential buildings is projected to increase 4% this year and continue at that pace of growth through 2019. The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast indicates the commercial construction sectors will generate much of the expected gains this year, and by 2019 the industrial and institutional sectors will dominate the projected construction growth.

“Rebuilding after the record-breaking losses from natural disasters last year, the recently enacted tax reform bill, and the prospects of an infrastructure package are expected to provide opportunities for even more robust levels of activity within the industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) and other major leading indicators for the industry also point to an upturn in construction activity over the coming year.”

Market  Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts      2018      2019                        

Overall  nonresidential building                                 4.0%      3.9%                        

Commercial  / industrial                                              4.4%      2.9%      

Office space                                                                     4.6%      3.0%      

Retail                                                                                 4.4%      3.5%      

Hotels                                                                                4.1%      0.8%      

Industrial facilities                                                           3.3%      5.2%                        

Institutional                                                                    3.8%      4.3%      

Education                                                                         4.0%      4.9%      

Healthcare facilities                                                        4.0%      4.0%      

Public safety                                                                    3.6%      3.9%      

Amusement / recreation                                                3.3%      2.4%      

Religious                                                                          -1.1%      0.9%  

You can learn more about the Consensus Construction Forecast here.

About the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel

The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is conducted twice a year with the leading nonresidential construction forecasters in the United States including, Dodge Data & Analytics, Wells Fargo Securities, IHS-Global Insight, Moody’s, CMD Group, Associated Builders & Contractors and FMI.  The purpose of the Consensus Construction Forecast Panel is to project business conditions in the construction industry over the coming 12 to 18 months.  The Consensus Construction Forecast Panel has been conducted for 18 years.

About The American Institute of Architects

Founded in 1857, the American Institute of Architects consistently works to create more valuable, healthy, secure, and sustainable buildings, neighborhoods, and communities. Through more than 200, international, state and local chapters, the AIA advocates for public policies that promote economic vitality and public wellbeing. Members adhere to a code of ethics and conduct to ensure the highest professional standards. The AIA provides members with tools and resources to assist them in their careers and business as well as engaging civic and government leaders and the public to find solutions to pressing issues facing our communities, institutions, nation and world. Visit


Matt Tinder

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