Meet AIA Chief Economist Richard Branch

Richard Branch joined AIA in 2026, succeeding Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD, as AIA’s chief economist. Branch came to AIA from Dodge Construction, where he was the chief economist as well. In this Q&A, Branch discusses his role, how firms can use data like the AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index® (ABI), and the ways he hopes his work will support AIA members.  

Answers have been edited for concision and clarity.

AIA Architect: How would you describe your role at AIA?

Branch: AIA has a lot of data on the profession available to it, like the ABI, backlog numbers, and data on firm performance, staffing, and compensation. I view my role at AIA as trying to connect all those dots to not just economic data but to how architects run their firms—particularly in a time like this, when there are so many challenges facing every type of firm.  

What does today’s economic environment mean for architecture firms of different sizes?

An old joke goes that President Truman got sick of economists saying, “On one hand, and then on the other hand,” so Truman said, “Somebody give me a one-handed economist.” I think that translates well into what’s going on in the economy and in the construction space because it’s so uneven. There's no single answer.

At smaller firms, cash flow can become an issue quickly. They typically have fewer projects, and they’re less geographically diverse. They probably have less sector diversification, too. It can very quickly become a problem when labor’s an issue and there are higher material prices and tariffs. Firms with less than $250,000 in annual billings saw their average backlog fall sharply in the second quarter.

But that’s not to say the large firms are off scot-free. They definitely have more diversification, but they also have the challenge of maintaining a large staff. They sometimes need to make a hard decision: Do I cut labor, knowing that I might never get them back if I let them go? Or do I keep them and realize that that's going to hit my margins and my profit?

I would ask these firms to consider where they sit within the broader market. Where are they from a sector, geographic, and labor force perspective? I think right now that’s what matters more than whether they’re a small or a large firm.  

How should firm leaders think about planning when economic conditions remain uncertain?

In this environment, you need to think about scenarios:

1. What will my business look like if conditions improve in 12 months?  
2. What if conditions stay the same?
3. And what if conditions get worse?

Within each of those scenarios, you might hire, lay people off, or change nothing. But the most important thing is to have data that will allow you to pivot one way or another.

A simple example is interest rates. The Federal Reserve seems to be fairly locked into just keeping interest rates steady. That’s your baseline scenario.  

But what if the Fed starts cutting rates? That’s going to potentially lead to more construction projects, so you might need to hire and ramp up marketing and business development. And conversely, if the Fed raises rates, that’s going to make the construction space more challenging.

How can AIA members use data like the ABI?

I think the one mistake people make is treating the ABI like the stock market ticker: Is it up or is it down? And that is important, but I think you need to look underneath the ABI, too. What’s happening with multifamily, institutional, and commercial and manufacturing data? What’s happening from a regional perspective—the West, the South, the North? It’s very easy to look at that national number and think that’s going to give the answer when there’s so much rich detail underneath it.  

The second thing I would ask people to do is track how your firm relates to the ABI. What are your billings doing relative to the nation or to your region (if you’re a small firm in one geographic area)?  

That will tell you if you’re growing faster than the broader environment or if you’re contracting. Again, that’s a scenario. From there, you can make a business plan on how to get back on track or keep building on the gains that you have.

What sectors do you believe present the greatest opportunities for growth?

I’ve been describing this market as like a K, so some areas are up, and some are down. Data centers are at the top line of that K. Looking at our July Consensus Construction Forecast, we expect 33% data center growth this year and another 25% next year.

Health care is another one. We have a rapidly aging U.S. population, and we’ve seen a fair bit of underinvestment in health care over the past several decades. This is all coming to a head right now, and we’re starting to see stronger growth, not just in traditional hospitals but also in clinics, nursing homes, urgent care centers, and senior housing.  

More on the niche side, the forecast also predicts growth in sectors like amusement, recreation, and transportation. The connection between those three is that there are a lot of publicly funded projects, so they’re somewhat disconnected from broader macroeconomic challenges.  

One qualifier to all of this: Businesses need to rethink how they interpret a forecast. I just said data centers are a growth sector. That doesn’t mean everyone needs to turn into a data center architect. I think the better move is to look at your firm and your capabilities. Where do those intersect with the parts of the economy that are growing?

What federal policies could have the greatest impact on architects over the next few years?

I’m going to put this into two buckets. The first bucket would be things like tariffs, immigration policy, and broader geopolitical risk like the war in Iran. Those three have become a potent cocktail that has impeded growth in the built environment.

Tariffs raise prices on building materials coming into the country, and a large percentage of construction workers are undocumented. As for the Iran conflict: Roofing and some siding and plastics are heavily impacted by oil prices.  

The future of those federal policies will be something we need to keep an eye on, and it goes back to scenarios. We don’t know which direction it’s going to go, so coming up with scenarios is valuable.

The second bucket has housing and the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act. I’ve been very proud of AIA’s advocacy in that effort, and I think housing is a silver bullet for the economy.

Data tells us that single-family housing leads to things like schools, retail, and health care.  You put in a housing development, then you need your Chick-fil-A and your Targets, you need your schools, you need your hospitals. Growth down the line from the ROAD to Housing Act is going to stimulate broader construction. There are going to be a lot of secondary and tertiary impacts from that law that will benefit our industry.

What do you hope AIA members will come to rely on you for

Horrible dad jokes.

But in seriousness, I’ll say three things:

One, I want our members to trust the analysis. I’m honored to work with people like Jennifer [Riskus] and Michele [Russo], and I want members to wonder, “What do they think?”  [Jennifer Riskus and Michele Russo, Hon. AIA, work on AIA’s economics team with Branch.]  

Two, I want the data to be actionable. It’s one thing to say something like, “Interest rates are falling.” It’s another to tell members the broader economic outcome of that.

The third thing is answering: How do I run my business? How does economic information impact hiring, firing, marketing, and whatnot? It’s one thing to make a single decision on the data. It’s another to use it to run your business. And that’s really what I hope members come to rely on me and the broader economics team for.

We’re not going to let you go without one of those dad jokes.

What did the tough pepperoni say?

I’m stumped.

"You wanna pizza me?"

Have questions for AIA’s economics team? To get in touch, email Economics@aia.org.

Danielle Steger is AIA’s senior manager, editorial & publications.