Nonresidential Construction Spending to Face Prolonged Weakness Through 2027

WASHINGTON – January 20, 2026 – Panelists in The American Institute of Architects’ latest Consensus Construction Forecast expect a modest 1.0 percent increase in overall building spending for 2026, rising to just 2.2 percent in 2027.  

“Spending on nonresidential building over the second half of last year was disappointing,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “As of midyear last year, members of the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel were projecting that spending on buildings would be up almost 2 percent for 2025, followed by a similar gain this year. Now this modest forecast gain looks instead to have been a decline of a similar magnitude, with disappointing results across the board.”

While the overall outlook is flat, performance varies significantly by category. Spending on commercial facilities is expected to rise by 3.0 percent this year, followed by a 3.5 percent increase in 2027, according to the Consensus Construction Forecast. In contrast, manufacturing spending is projected to decline by 3.9 percent this year, with an additional 0.9 percent drop next year. Institutional facilities are anticipated to see steady growth, with spending increasing 2.7 percent this year and 2.8 percent in 2027.

Data centers are expected to experience strong growth over the next two years, while traditional office spending, excluding data centers, is projected to decline sharply during the same period. Retail facilities, including warehouses, are forecast to see minimal growth this year, with only modest gains in 2027. Institutional categories, known for more stable spending, show mixed results. Health care facilities are projected to achieve mid-single-digit growth this year and next, while spending on education and amusement and recreation facilities is expected to remain nearly flat over both years.

Complete details on the latest Consensus Construction Forecast.